Briefing
“The Arab Spring…was ‘an intelligence disaster for the US’".—Michael Scheuer, The Guardian, August 28, 2011.
Could Arab Spring have been predicted? Why was this sudden and widespread outbreak of demonstrations and protests such a surprise for the world and particularly U.S. intelligence agencies? What are the implications of political change in this area for intelligence operations? Join expert commentators Reuel Marc Gerecht, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, author of The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East, and a former Middle East specialist in the CIA’s Clandestine Service; and Robert L. Grenier, whose 27- year CIA career included his roles as Director of the CIA Counterterrorism Center, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asia, and Chief of Station in Islamabad, Pakistan; for a spirited discussion of how the US’s understanding, or misunderstanding, of the Middle East affects intelligence collection and analysis in the region. While these rapidly emerging regimes and their intelligence services may differ from the U.S.’s traditional intelligence partners, are there opportunities now that didn’t exist before? Sparks may fly when the speakers share their potentially conflicting ideas about how intelligence agencies can adapt to work with the new governments and the challenges they present.